Report from Germany, intensive numbers edition

So there’s the corona pandemic going on, a devastating virus causing havoc. Like most countries, Germany just passed strict lockdown laws while ruining its economy and spending about a billion euros on top. So the hypothesis is clear: There is an extraordinary bad infectious disease going on. Let’s look at the evidence.

Deaths

First you would certainly expect the number of dead people be significantly and greatly elevated. We all know that testing and the counting of corona deaths is dubious – but the total number of deaths is a foolproof metric. Here’s a very nice graph by with the official weekly death numbers. As you can see, there’s nothing. Even the peaks are nowhere as big as 2017 or 2018. If you add up the total yearly numbers I think we’re even under average this year.

ICU patients

So okay, no deaths. But lots of the talk is about hospitals and in particular their ICU numbers. For the corona pandemic, Germany created a central register of all available ICU beds and their occupancy. Here’s the graph from 2020-10-31 (data available here). Couple of things:

  • That thing was created in this year and as you can see there was a phase (up to May) where the numbers were rapidly rising. That was when more and more hospitals entered the system.
  • You can see that the number of occupied ICU beds is pretty flat – almost no significant change. Not even now that flu season is around
  • As of yesterday, 74.2% of ICU beds are occupied. How much is that in perspective? Well in 2015, the average ICU occupancy was 79.5%. You read that right – the YEARLY AVERAGE was ~80%. If you look for the numbers during flu season, you can find many reports of hospitals being so full, that ambulances have to wait until they can bring patients – meaning 100%. Just one report from my home city in 2018.

Respiratory illnesses

So no, hospitals are at completely typical capacity at worst. But are there people sick in general – at all? Luckily Germany has a network of so called sentinel clinics that report all SARI (Severe Acute Respiratory Infection) cases on a weekly basis. Most up to date data is here in the blue bars. This sums all symptomatic people together, no differentiation for the cause. As you can see, there are not more people sick at all.

Summary: Not only is there no data to support that there is something extraordinary going on, but there is in fact very reliable data that shows the opposite. The only questions remains is why do people create this panic? I understand the media and the politicians… they profit. But I can’t understand the few medical experts (some virologists, some doctors and some health officials) who support the falsified panic. I’m genuinely curious to maybe find out one day what happened there.

Bonus: What numbers are increased at all? What does increase is the ratio of people in the hospital and in the doctors offices who get a positive PCR test. But that metric has no negative implications. As every metric tells us, these people do not get more sick than those with influenza or other infections. And in general people don’t only get sick with only one infection, but usually multiple – so the ratios of all the infectious diseases add up to a lot more than 100%.

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